Nathan’s Injury Is Not the End of the World for the Twins

No argument from me that Joe Nathan is a REALLY good pitcher. I don’t feel his injury will be as devastating to the Twins as is being made out, however, as most competent relief pitchers could have approximated Nathan’s save opportunity conversion rate in 2009 given the same game situations.
Let’s start with the “Classic Cheap Save” -entering a game to start the last inning with no outs, no inherited runners, and a lead of 1, 2, or 3 runs. 45 of Nathan’s 52 save opportunities in 2009 (87%) fell into this category. Nathan actually blew 5 of these opportunities.
A) Start of inning, no outs, no runners, 3 run lead: Nathan 13-0 in save opportunities.
B) Start of inning, no outs, no runners, 2 run lead: Nathan 15-3.
C) Start of inning, no outs, no runners, 1 run lead: Nathan 12-2.
To blow a 2-run lead when starting an inning means surrendering at least 8 total bases before you can record 3 outs. That should be a gimme but Nathan only converted these situations at an 83% clip. A 15-3 record in these situations should not be hard to duplicate (or improve upon) by most competent relief pitchers.
In the case of the 1 run lead to start an inning, Nathan converted 86% of these, though more difficult, in theory, than the two-run lead. While a competent relief pitcher may blow a couple more of these, they will probably have converted one or two more of the two-run lead situations than Nathan so I call the entire “Classic Cheap Save” scenarios a tie between Nathan and whoever replaces him this year.
As for Nathan’s other save opportunities, here are instances where non-save opportunities turned into save opportunities and Nathan entered with leads greater than 3 runs but men on base:
D) 1 out in 9th, 5-run lead, bases loaded. Nathan 1-0
E) 2 out in 9th, 4-run lead, runners on 1st & 2nd. Nathan 1-0
F) 2 out in 9th, 4-run lead, runners on 1st & 2nd. Nathan 1-0
G) 1 out in 9th, 4-run lead, runners on 1st & 3rd. Nathan 1-0
Given the leads, these are relatively easy saves, as well. Nathan was 4-0. Any other competent reliever should be 4-0 in these, too. (Okay, maybe 3-1)
We’ve now accounted for 49 of Nathan’s 52 Save opportunities with little or no fall-off in conversions from replacement. Let’s look at the last three.
H) 2 out in 9th, 2-run lead, runner on 1st. Nathan 1-0
I) 8th inning, 1-run lead, runner on 2nd. Nathan 1-0
J) 2 out in 8th, 1 run-lead, NO runners, Nathan 1-0
A relatively competent relief pitcher could convert two if not all three of these situations. In fact, Nathan only inherited two immediately critical situations in regular season save opportunities – the rest were cream puffs.





